So I went looking for data on the health impacts of HIV vs smoking in the LGBT community, and found a whole slew of short news item/ blog pieces:
http://www.medpagetoday.com/HIVAIDS/HIVAIDS/36521
http://thinkprogress.org/health/2012/12/19/1358131/tobacco-deadlier-hiv-virus/
http://thinkprogress.org/health/2013/04/01/1805771/cdc-targets-lgbt-anti-smoking/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jimmy-lasalvia-/smoking-lgbt_b_5053140.html
http://sfbaytimes.com/the-new-old-gay-epidemic/
http://vadamagazine.com/09/07/2014/news/us-smoking-bigger-problem-lgbt-people-hiv
http://www.washingtonblade.com/2014/07/09/smoking-now-bigger-gay-health-threat-hiv/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/16/lgbt-wellness-july-16_n_5591815.html
To the degree that these pieces reference any primary research at all, they seem to be talking about this study out of Denmark from 2012: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23254417 [contact me if you want the PDF]
What the study says is that in Denmark (which has much better comprehensive health care for HIV than the US) among a group of people mostly in their late 30s through early 50s, the death rate in HIV+ nonsmokers is very similar to the death rate in HIV- smokers. And that if you look at HIV+ smokers the deaths are much higher than you would expect from just adding the deaths in HIV- smokers and the deaths in HIV+ nonsmokers (2.4% per year vs. 0.61% and 0.62%). Also, it’s worth noting that of the HIV+ people who died in the study, three quarters died of something other than AIDS (defined by CD4 count <400).
Which is all super interesting and really emphasizes that, because of HAART, people with HIV are living long enough to start worrying about other health problems, like cardiovascular disease and non-AIDS related cancers.
That being said, the study has some big problems. They did not control for income or education (which would be pretty standard things to control for in a US study). And there is clearly something different about the HIV+ smokers compared to the HIV+ nonsmokers. They found that the HIV+ smokers were twice as likely to be HCV+ as HIV+ nonsmokers and they don’t seem to have any data for HCV in HIV- controls and no HBV data at all.
But the thing that seems really off in the study (and the thing that keeps getting quoted in the press and advocacy infographics) is that HIV only takes 5.1 years off your life expectancy, which would make HIV less dangerous than smoking, Type II diabetes or recurrent depression. Most other studies estimate that (in the HAART era) HIV takes between 20 and 30 years off your life.
And I just don’t think anyone has enough data to make that kind of claim. HAART is amazing, and apparently is responsible for more total years of life saved than any other medical intervention in the last 20 years. But we have no idea what the side effects from being on HAART for 40 or 50 or 60 years will be, because no one has ever been on HAART for more than 20 years. The Danish researchers calculate their life expectancy estimates using Kaplan-Meier analysis which assumes that nothing weird happens to patients after you stop following them (most patients were only in the study for about 3-5 years), so it can not be used to predict long-term side effects from a relatively new drug cocktail.
Another thing is that they found a similar synergistic effect of being HIV+ and having EVER smoked, as seen in the following rates of death (per year):
HIV- never smoker: 0.14%
HIV- previous smoker: 0.28%
HIV+ never smoker: 0.61%
HIV+ previous smoker: 1.31%
Which means either
-HIV+ people who have never smoked are in some way different from HIV+ current and former smokers
-smoking is so dangerous for HIV+ people that smoking cessation programs are only going to have limited usefulness in extending people’s lives
This, of course, isn’t mentioned in any of the advocacy and outreach efforts.
I am all for more support for LGBT people who want to quit smoking, but I think the paper is being overinterpreted, and it is making HIV seem like a less serious health problem than it really is. Also, a lot of the reporting overlooks the differences between HIV care in Denmark (super amazingly good) and HIV care in the US (good if you are affluent and white, otherwise underfunded and catch-as-catch-can) and so underestimates how much more money and attention need to go into HIV care in US before it would make sense to shift the focus to smoking.